5/12/2024
The global art market in 2024 has exhibited mixed signals, with notable variations across sectors such as auctions, art fairs, and high-net-worth individual (HNWI) spending. While the high end of the market has been more subdued, median HNWI spending and the rising interest in young and emerging artists underscore a resilient and evolving landscape.
According to The Art Basel & UBS Survey of Global Collecting 2024, there was little improvement compared to 2023, with aggregate sales at major auction houses—Christie’s, Sotheby’s, Phillips, and Bonhams—down by 26% in the first six months of 2024, compared to the same period the previous year, and below levels seen prior to the pandemic in 2019. However, there was some mixed performance between the major auction houses, with those operating outside the highest end of the market faring slightly better.
Despite signs of a slowdown at the high end, median HNWI spending has remained steady. Respondents from Mainland China, in particular, recorded the highest levels of spending, signaling resilience in the region. Confidence among HNWIs remains strong, with a large majority optimistic about the second half of the year. Notably, HNWIs are increasingly investing in young and emerging voices, with 52% of respondents purchasing works from these categories—a significant year-on-year increase. Additionally, 88% of collectors bought from galleries they had not worked with before in 2023 or 2024, demonstrating a confident and expansive approach to art collecting.
The public auction sector in the first half of 2024 revealed slower sales compared to the same period in 2023. Combined totals at major auction houses, including Christie’s, Sotheby’s, Phillips, and Bonhams, were down by 26% and remained below pre-pandemic levels from 2019. Mixed performances were observed across these auction houses, with those operating outside the highest market tiers faring relatively better. This downturn in the high-end market reflects broader trends of reduced activity in the most expensive segments, particularly those works priced over $10 million, which had been a key driver in market growth in previous years.
In the dealer sector, when asked at the end of 2023 about their expectations for 2024, 36% of dealers forecasted an improvement in sales, a notable decline from 45% in 2022 and 62% in 2021. However, only 16% anticipated a decline in sales, with the remaining 48% expecting a stable year. Similarly, a survey of mid-tier auction houses revealed that 38% believed sales would improve, a slightly higher figure than that of dealers but still a decrease from the 48% reported in 2022. The majority of these businesses (58%) expected a relatively stable year, with only a small share (4%) predicting deterioration.
One of the key drivers of the slowdown in the market over 2023 was a contraction in sales of the highest-priced works at auction, particularly those sold for over $10 million. During the pandemic in 2020, values contracted across all segments, but the recovery in 2021 was weighted toward the high end, with the $10 million-plus price segment showing the strongest growth. In 2022, the division between the high end and lower price tiers was even more evident, with only the $10 million-plus segment continuing to grow while other categories declined. The changes in 2023 marked a distinct reversal of this trend, as sales at the highest levels thinned out, while lower-priced works saw more buoyant sales.
Despite these setbacks, global trade in art and antiques has shown resilience. Art imports grew by 6% in 2023, totaling $33 billion, driven by high demand in regions like Hong Kong. In contrast, exports fell slightly by 1%, totaling $32 billion, as activity slowed in key hubs such as the US and the UK. This trend has persisted into early 2024, reflecting the complex and evolving dynamics of the global art trade, with regional demand varying significantly and global flows of art becoming more nuanced.
Art fairs have remained a cornerstone of the art market, with performance metrics suggesting a slow but steady recovery. Attendance figures and sales data indicate growing confidence among collectors, particularly through their engagement with younger and emerging artists. According to Artsy’s Art Fair Report 2024, 52% of HNWIs reported investing in emerging voices—a significant year-on-year increase. Additionally, 88% of collectors surveyed purchased from galleries they had not worked with before in 2023 or 2024, reflecting a dynamic and expansive approach to art collecting.
The Art Basel & UBS Survey of Global Collecting 2024 also highlights the behaviors and attitudes of art fair attendees, especially focusing on the VIP guests. This survey, distributed to a database of more than 1,400 active art collectors from 28 different markets, including significant representation from Europe and the US, offers deeper insights into art fair engagement. The sample was not limited to HNWIs but instead included highly engaged and active participants in the art market, including private collectors, museum directors, artists, and advisors.
The survey showed that the age profile of regular art fairgoers skewed older, with half of the respondents in the Boomer generation or older (60 years and above). These individuals are established collectors, with an average of 20 years of collecting experience—double the length of the broader HNWI survey respondents. Many had substantial collections, with an average of 161 works, and 63% owned more than 50 pieces. Notably, only 8% were new to the market, with collections started within the last five years.
This comprehensive survey highlights the deeper engagement of VIP fairgoers in the market and underscores the continued importance of art fairs as a major platform for art acquisition and collector interaction.